000 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 26W ON THE 06Z SURFACE MAP IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AT LOW LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-44W. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAINLY GUADALOUPE AND DOMINICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-21.5N BETWEEN 54W-61W. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE DAY GOES ON BUT MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N25W 8N38W 7N43W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 50W-52W AND ALONG THE COASTLINE OF SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N87W WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST...ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 20 NM N OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF 73W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN AROUND 50 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA LATE SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 29N68W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALL THE WAY NE TO 31N61W AND BEYOND. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N40W. A NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 37N38W DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. $$ GR