000 AXNT20 KNHC 171046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 20N54W-16N60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N23W 5N31W 8N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-20W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-38W AND WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N87W WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF IS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF 73W AND FORCING THE DIMINISHING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 18N71W ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 18N79W TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE CUBAN COAST. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N65W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE US E COAST ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 30N67W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES W TO 28N78W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO 21N65W DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N56W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N39W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. $$ WALLACE