000 AXNT20 KNHC 170449 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ATLC ALONG 37W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. LOCATION WAS BASED ON QUICK-SCAT PASS...BUT MAYBE FURTHER W. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 5N32W-3N36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 20N56W-16N60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ONLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N23W 10N34W 5N43W 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 12W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS APPROACHING THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...FOR NOW THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N86W WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE GULF AND A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FORM ALABAMA TO OFF THE SW LOUISIANA COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS FOR THE MOST PART QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA THAT ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NE FLOW W OF 70W AND FORCING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 78W-84W AND HAITI WITHIN 75 NM FROM 71.5W-73.5W. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS S TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE US E COAST OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N57W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N33W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N38W. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 13N/14N W OF 60W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. $$ WALLACE