000 AXNT20 KNHC 162356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RECENT BATCH OVER THE ATLC AND ANY EFFECTS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 36W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC V-STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE. AFRICAN DUST IS SEEN ON LAST LIGHT VIS SATELLITE N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND ABOUT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ANOTHER HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16.5N-20N BETWEEN 56W-60W. WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE FOR THE WINDWARD AND ESPECIALLY LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 15-20 KT. SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME THOUGH IT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 10N35W 5N40W 6N45W 13N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 4.5N W OF 40W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 4N33W. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA FROM 7N-11N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THRU DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.. HELPING TO FIRE TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COASTS BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND 95W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT ALSO CAUSED AN EARLIER BLOWUP OF TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF TALLAHASSEE BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N86W IS BASICALLY KEEPING MOST WATERS RATHER DRY WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.. BRINGING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF COAST TO SEE AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL TSTMS.. MOST CONCENTRATED FARTHER N OF THE REGION ALONG THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SE GULF CONTROLS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM THOUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ACTIVE TONIGHT IN A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE E CARIBBEAN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH RANGING FROM THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 13N80W BUT DRY AIR IS KEEPING ANY SHOWERS QUITE SHALLOW-BASED. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES E TO W THROUGH THE REGION... REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY MID-WEEK. TYPICAL TRADES COVER MUCH OF THE REGION...QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE REGIME THAT HELPED SPAWN ALBERTO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA THROUGH 31N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM 31N70W TO 27N74W BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE TROPICS. NARROW RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 27N57W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE POISED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. FARTHER E... MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N33W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W JUST PRODUCING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH ALONG 14N/15N W OF 30W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE NE ATLC. RIDGE IS QUITE FAR TO THE NORTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESEMBLES MID JULY RATHER THAN JUNE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONG RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENED AND REPLACED BY TROUGHING AS THE POSITIVE MJO AFFECTING THE AREAS HEADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE. $$ BLAKE