000 AXNT20 KNHC 161101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND ARE NOT HELPING THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE WIND FIELD IS OBSERVED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 17/1015 UTC FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 23N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME OF THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 21N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A FEW CELLS OF ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W 10N63W. CYCLONIC SWIRL OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W PROBABLY IS THE INDICATOR OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA. NOTHING HAS BEEN PLACED ON ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE YET. PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SWIRL WAS ISOLATED WAS MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 55W... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW RUNS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W...AND NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO FORM IN THE WATER JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IS DIGGING NOW THROUGH 32N74W TO 25N75W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N77W BEYOND 31N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N65W 30N71W 28N80W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W... A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N59W LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN FROM 75W AND 78W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N TO 35N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 27N32W LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 21N25W BEYOND 32N25W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 23W...WITH A LOW CENTER WEST OF PORTUGAL. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N41W...TO 30N59W 27N65W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN TO THE 1017 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N85W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. $$ MT