000 AXNT20 KNHC 151719 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WELL DEFINED WAVE SIGNATURE...CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME BROAD TURNING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS BUT OVERALL THIS WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY THAN IT WAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER THIS WEEK WHEN IT WAS APPROACHING AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS IT HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SEA IT HAS BEEN BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SIGNATURE AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N26W 6N38W 9N48W 9N60W. THE ONLY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND CURRENTLY LIES E OF 22W FROM 2N-12N. THIS AREA MAY POSSIBLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA IS SUPPLYING DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE SE GULF. A RATHER WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND EAST PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME ALONG 24N93W TO 18N95W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 89W-95W. BUOY 42055 REPORTED 30 KT WINDS IN ONE OF THE TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WNW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. A 1019 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 50-100 NM WEST OF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD AND HIGH PRES RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LIE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD N OF 18N...THIS INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF CUBA HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N56W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 15N66W. AT THE SURFACE...THE ONLY FEATURE PRODUCING ANY UNSTABLE WEATHER IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS IT WAS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS GENERATING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 74W-84W. A WEAKENING CLUSTERS OF STORMS IS OVER GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NEAR 20 KT WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS NEAR 25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N58W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A VAGUE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N27W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N33W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N56W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS CUTTING OFF THE SPRAWLING RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 50W-55W. BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE EAST ATLANTIC E OF 36W S OF 30N. A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N11W HAS TROUGHING THAT COVERS THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE AREA E OF 25W N OF 30N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS THE RULE. A PAIR OF 1030 MB HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W AND 34N45W IS SUPPLYING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES. COMPUTER MODELS KEEP THE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO LITTLE WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED. $$ CANGIALOSI