000
AXNT20 KNHC 142239
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID 
LEVEL ROTATION N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION 
BUT A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 2N-14N BETWEEN 23W-30W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ROTATION WITH LITTLE CURVATURE IN THE LOW 
LEVELS. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 8N41W-11N46W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER 
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA NE TO HISPANIOLA. 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 
NM OF LINE 16N67W-20N78W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE 
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W. 

ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N19W 6N36W 5N53W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE COAST OF 
AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST S OF 17N W OF 8W. BROAD AREA 
OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE TROPICS FROM 1N-14N BETWEEN 10W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SSW ACROSS THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W GULF TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW 
NEAR 28N94W THEN TO A BASE NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. AT THE 
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NE GULF 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 25N92W WITH A 
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO ACROSS 
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS IS GIVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S TO SE FLOW. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND E ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND FEEDING A BAND OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE 
FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 
30N82W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N89W. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE 
CARIBBEAN...SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN...THUS INDUCING THE INVERTED TROUGH 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE 
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL DO SO FOR MUCH THE 
WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE 
ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N67W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO ARE GENERATING AN AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W NE TO 
BEYOND BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS DOMINATED 
BY A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS/RIDGES. UPPER LOWS  ARE CENTERED 
NEAR 23N56W...29N36W...AND A THIRD OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. 
THIS IS SETTING UP A TUTT EXTENDING FROM SPAIN/PORTUGAL SW TO 
JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM THE AFRICA TO 
FLORIDA. 

$$
WALLACE