000 AXNT20 KNHC 141738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 14/1500 UTC IS IN SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35.0N 79.5W. ALBERTO IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ALBERTO. FOR DETAILS AND WARNINGS PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. SIMILARITY TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THIS WAVE MAY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N ON THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR ROTATING CLOUDS N OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND IS POSSIBLY AIDING IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE EAST PACIFIC. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N24W 7N34W 9N44W 5N60W. BESIDES FOR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 17W FROM 4N-16N. AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH RIDGING COVERING THE W GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THIS REGION EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW CORNER. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF IS IN THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGHS. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND STREAMING INTO THE NE GULF AND FED INTO THE TRANSITIONING EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE MOST NOTABLE ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS IN THE NW GULF...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-98W. AT THE SFC... A TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM T.D. ALBERTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N93W. THIS TROUGH HAS LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR THE AXIS BUT DOES HAVE A VERY NOTABLE WIND SHIFT LEFT BEHIND BY ALBERTO. MUCH OF THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 75W. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO ALONG 70W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 69W-74W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN ON PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM OR SO. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE THEN TURNS N/NEWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT IT WILL PUSH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA...THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GENERAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC BASIN SOUTH OF 32N. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS RIDGING EXTENDING NEWARD TO 32N60W. BROAD ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TWO UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED IN THIS VAGUE TROUGH. ONE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N55W. THIS LOW IS GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. A BROAD WEAKER UPPER LOW LIES FURTHER TO THE NE NEAR 29N35W. BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SE OF THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST NAMELY E OF 40W S OF 25. A LARGE UPPER LOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N13W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF OF 23W. NONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCERS OR HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SFC REFLECTION IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SFC...A DOMINATING 1031 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N38W CONTAINS RIDGING THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN N OF 15N. QUIET WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 24N55W. $$ CANGIALOSI