000 AXNT20 KNHC 141154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 14/0900 UTC IS IN EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33.5N 81.4W. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PRECIPITATION WITH ALBERTO EITHER IS MOVING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OR IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ALBERTO STILL IS SURROUNDED BY A SLOWLY-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BEYOND. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...ARE TO THE EAST OF IT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 14N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE FROM 11N59W TO 20N64W. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE 32N57W TO 22N67W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...SOME WITH THE WAVE AND SOME WITH THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N11W 6N20W 5N23W 5N26W 6N37W 5N43W 6N56W 9N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W IN SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 29N93.5W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W TO 14N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE 67W/68W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH AND 83W/84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 74W AND 81W. THE ITCZ IS IN THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO IS IN THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED EASTWARD TO SOME DEGREE. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W TO A 23N60W LOW CENTER TO 22N67W. THE NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM A 30N36W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO 25N48W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CENTRAL MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA NEAR 24N12W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 22N EAST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N39W TO 32N53W TO 30N74W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. $$ MT