000 AXNT20 KNHC 140612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AT 14/0600 UTC IS NEAR 32.6N 82.1W...0R ABOUT 50 NM/45 NM AMD 45 NM/85 KM SOUTH OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALBERTO IS MOVING SOUTHERN GEORGIA RIGHT NOW. THE STORM NEARLY IS BEING SWALLOWED UP BY A SLOWLY-ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 28N87W AND 27N90W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-TO YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND 31N75W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH CAROLINA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...ARE TO THE EAST OF IT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ EXIST ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 14N AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AT BEST EXIST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE FROM 11N59W TO 20N64W. THE ONLY MEANINGFUL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE NOW CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND WESTERN COSTA RICA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS IN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS JUST OFFSHORE AWAY FROM NICARAGUA. A FEW OTHER CLUSTERS ARE BLOWING THROUGH INTERIOR NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N11W 6N20W 5N23W 5N26W 6N37W 5N43W 6N56W 9N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ EXIST ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A FEW SHOWERS IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 85W WITH THE SLOWLY-ADVANCING 30N85W 27N90W COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY BETWEEN THE 16N73W LOW CENTER AND 85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED EASTWARD TO SOME DEGREE. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W TO A 23N60W LOW CENTER TO 22N67W. THE NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM A 30N37W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO 25N48W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CENTRAL MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA NEAR 24N12W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 22N EAST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N35W TO 32N50W TO 32N72W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. $$ MT