000 AXNT20 KNHC 131203 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 AMENDED FOR 12Z POSITION OF T.S. ALBERTO TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AT 13/1200 UTC IS NEAR 29.5N 84.2W OR 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA... AND ABOUT 55 NM/105 KM WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALREADY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA ARE FOUND NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THIS IS THE ONLY CLOUDY AREA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE STORM CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVERYTHING WEST OF THAT LINE IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO OTHER PRECIPITATION. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE LINE FROM ALBERTO TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE LINE 28N83W-21N90W AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY 1200 UTC TODAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N13W 6N22W 6N30W 5N36W 5N44W 9N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY WITH THE 13/1200 UTC MAP. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 60W. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W TO 26N61W TO 21N67W. THE NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N38W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N40W TO 22N43W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N15W NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 30N40W LOW CENTER AND THE MADEIRAS-TO-CANARY ISLANDS TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 23N28W TO 32N31W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 31N57W 21N67W TROUGH AND THE 30N40W LOW CENTER IS A BROAD RIDGE AND NOT ALL THAT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N33W THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N61W TO 29N72W THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. $$ MT