000 AXNT20 KNHC 130626 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS 28.4N 84.6W...OR ABOUT 85 NM/150 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 NM/165 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM VENICE NORTHWARD TO APALACHEE BAY. HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA ARE FOUND NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THAT AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS THE ONLY SUCH AREA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE STORM CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EVERYTHING WEST OF THAT LINE IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND NO OTHER PRECIPITATION. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE LINE FROM ALBERTO TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE LINE 28N83W-21N90W AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE ALREADY RUNNING MORE THAN 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...ALREADY DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WERE FOUND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N14W 7N20W 8N29W 5N40W 5N46W 9N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N5W 3N10W 5N12W...AND 3N15W 3N18W 5N20W 5N22W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W... AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS AWAY FROM THE STORM...TO THE SOUTHWEST...FROM 25N86W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF ALBERTO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE 56W/57W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE 56W/57W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY AFTER 13/1200 UTC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 60W. NOT ANY ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OR ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE FOR THAT MATTER. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W TO 26N61W TO 21N67W. THE NEXT TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N38W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N40W TO 22N43W. THE LAST TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N15W NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 30N40W LOW CENTER AND THE MADEIRAS-TO-CANARY ISLANDS TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 23N28W TO 32N31W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE 31N57W 21N67W TROUGH AND THE 30N40W LOW CENTER IS A BROAD RIDGE AND NOT ALL THAT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN AZORES 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 39N33W THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N61W TO 29N72W THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. $$ MT