000 AXNT20 KNHC 130030 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 84.9W AT 14/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND ARE NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. ALSO...THE STORM HAS LEFT THE AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE STORM SURGE FLOODING... WHICH COULD BE 8-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS PROBABLY FURTHER WEST NEAR 30W. THIS WAVE MAY BE RELOCATED IN THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WHICH ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER PANAMA. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N25W 5N35W 7N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 2.5N-11N EAST OF 20W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-25W...WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THAT IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. STORMY WEATHER AND THE STROM SURGE WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN PORTION WHERE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. A FEEDER BAND IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE SE SECTOR OF THE GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT LIES TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO'S CENTER ACROSS THE W GULF AND OVER MEXICO GENERATING BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SOUTH MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EAST GULF WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N81W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING ALSO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING A SUBSIDENT PATTERN OVER THE REGION THAT IS TO LIMIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY A OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW SPREADING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY. TRADES WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N38W THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N42W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N53W. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG 31N19W 28N27W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N34W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS. $$ GR 000 AXNT20 KNHC 130030 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 84.9W AT 13/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND ARE NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. ALSO...THE STORM HAS LEFT THE AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE STORM SURGE FLOODING... WHICH COULD BE 8-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS PROBABLY FURTHER WEST NEAR 30W. THIS WAVE MAY BE RELOCATED IN THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WHICH ALSO SHOWS AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER PANAMA. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N25W 5N35W 7N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 2.5N-11N EAST OF 20W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-25W...WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO THAT IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. STORMY WEATHER AND THE STROM SURGE WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN PORTION WHERE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. A FEEDER BAND IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE SE SECTOR OF THE GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT LIES TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO'S CENTER ACROSS THE W GULF AND OVER MEXICO GENERATING BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SOUTH MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EAST GULF WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N81W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING ALSO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING A SUBSIDENT PATTERN OVER THE REGION THAT IS TO LIMIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY A OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW SPREADING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY. TRADES WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N38W THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N42W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N53W. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG 31N19W 28N27W. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N34W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS. $$ GR