000 AXNT20 KNHC 121730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS RELOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS LOWERED TO 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING AND IS NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY DESPITE THE MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALBERTO REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED BY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH ALL OF ITS CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS CONSTRICTED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IN THE E GULF AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA CURRENTLY FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-85W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS IMPINGING ON THE W SIDE OF THE STORM. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY TRACKING ALBERTO TO THE NE TOWARDS THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO. ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE AXIS BUT THE BRUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL AHEAD OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 53W/54W S OF 14N BASED UPON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR 20 KT AND COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW AND TO THE GREATER ANTILLES LATE WED/THURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE TAIL MOISTURE OF ALBERTO N FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N25W 5N37W 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CURRENTLY LIE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 52W-56W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 17W FROM 3N-12N. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST. MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. THIS WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE 18Z OR 00Z SFC ANALYSIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. STORMY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PERSISTING IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER FLORIDA ON THE MOIST E SIDE OF THE STORM CIRCULATION. THE HEAVIEST MOST ORGANIZED BANDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING NEWARD WITH THE STORM'S FORWARD MOTION. A TAIL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN RACING ACROSS THE S GULF. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT LIES TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO'S CENTER ACROSS THE W GULF AND OVER MEXICO GENERATING BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND A WEAKENING UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EAST GULF WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N81W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AROUND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING ON THE S EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 53W/54W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW SPREADING TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES WED/THU. TRADES WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 34N38W THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N42W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 14N58W 20N44W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 35W S OF 29N. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW LIES TO THE N OF THE AREA IN IN THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 35N20W. AT THE SFC...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE AREA ALONG 32N20W 28N28N. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N36W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 20 KT TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS. $$ CANGIALOSI