000 AXNT20 KNHC 120602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 25.4N 87.7W AT 12/0600Z. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N90W 25N94W 24N98W ARE SWIRLING IN A CYCLONIC SENSE AROUND THE CENTER OF ALBERTO. ALL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND T.S. ALBERTO ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANTICYCLONIC EAST OF 30N86W 25N89W 20N92W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W... AND IN ONE CELL FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE 30N86W 20N92W LINE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FOUND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 12/0000 UTC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE 30N86W 20N92W LINE. T.S. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS PUSHED WESTWARD A BIT AS COMPARED TO ITS MOVEMENT FROM SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE 11/2130 UTC QUIK-SCAT WIND DATA SUPPORTED THIS SLIGHT MORE WESTWARD POSITION. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 45W AT 11/2030 UTC HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH THIS WAVE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS WAVE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W HAS BEEN SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N15W 8N18W 8N22W 7N26W 4N33W 6N40W 7N44W 7N47W. A BIG BALL OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING FROM WESTERN BURKINA FASO AND NORTHWESTERN GHANA AT 11/2030 UTC TO COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE IVORY COAST/SOUTHEASTERN GUINEA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 12/0500 UTC. THIS PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WHICH STILL IS INLAND. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W...SOME ARE ISOLATED STRONG. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES. THE GULF EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY RAIN AND CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE STORM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF TO THE WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF T.S. ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ARE PROBABLY LIKELY WEST OF T.S. ALBERTO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EWD OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N AND ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 48W/49W WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS BEING MOVED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N42W THEN CONTINUES SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N43W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N44W 26N44W 22N47W. A SURFACE BERMUDA-TO-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N37W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE TROPICS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 59W NORTH OF 20N. $$ MT