000 AXNT20 KNHC 112351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ALBERTO...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 24.5N 87.8W AT 11/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 375 MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 400 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WELL DETACHED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL STORM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A VERY WELL DEFINED WAVE FOR EARLY IN THE SEASON DEPICTED WITH AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N45W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PROBABLY ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N40W 6N50W 7N59W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 1.5N-5.5N BETWEEN 31W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS AFFECTING THE GULF EAST OF 86W AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. BESIDES ALBERTO...IS A MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 24N96W 20N93W MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT. THE E AND CENTRAL GULF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 19N82W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EWD OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N AND ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W/45W WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N42W THEN CONTINUES SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N45W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N55W. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE AREA ALONG 44W-45W. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N037W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...PRODUCING 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW TSTMS COVERS THE ATLC WEST OF 75W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 59W NORTH OF 20N. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. $$ GR