000 AXNT20 KNHC 111723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BASED UPON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS. THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS NEAR 23.9N 88.1W AT 11/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 400 MILES W OF KEY WEST...MOVING NW 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE ALBERTO INCREASING IN STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WELL DETACHED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS SHEARED SYSTEM HAS NEARLY ALL OF ITS PRECIP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IMPINGING ON THE W SIDE. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTER BANDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A TRACK TO THE N/NW AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE NE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE CURRENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND BECAUSE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALBERTO IS NOT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MUCH FURTHER. IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA. RATHER BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE STILL DOES HAVE A V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A FEW COMPUTER MODELS HAVE THE WAVE SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRY IT QUICKLY WESTWARD POSSIBLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PROBABLY ASSISTING IN GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N28W 4N33W 7N43W 6N50W 7N59W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...THERE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 3W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WEATHER IS CONTROLLED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD IN THE E GULF AND OVER FLORIDA S OF 28N E OF 86.5W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE AREA W OF 92W RAIN FREE WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 23N96W 19N92W MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO WILL REMAIN TO THE E OF THE CENTER IN THE E GULF AS IT TRACKS TO THE N/NE OVER TIME. THE E AND CENTRAL GULF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEPEND UPON THE MOTION AND SPEED OF ALBERTO. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND NWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UPS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER LIES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF ALBERTO'S MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W/45W WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. UPPER RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DRYING ON THE SWARD EXTENSION. A NARROW MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N42W SWARD TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N44W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N55W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER NEAR 20N26W...DISPLACED NORTHWARD MORE TYPICAL OF A JULY-LIKE POSITION. AT THE SFC...RIDGING DOMINATES THE PATTERN WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N44W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 37N38W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE AREA ALONG 32N30W 30N35W. A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. $$ CANGIALOSI