000 AXNT20 KNHC 111048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.5N 87.0W AT 11/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 335 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST... MOVING NW 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. THE MOST RECENT NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE BEST CENTER IS W OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH IS SUBSTANTIATED BY NEARBY BUOYS/SHIPS. HOWEVER THERE STILL MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION LIKE YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10 MIN MEAN WIND OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 38 KT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD GIVE IT THE NAME ALBERTO. HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CENTER AS THE DEPRESSION HAS LEFT UPPER RIDGING IN THE CARIBBEAN BEHIND. A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH SOME QUESTION ON WHERE IT GOES AFTERWARD. HOW MUCH INFLUENCE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ON THIS SYSTEM IS IN DOUBT WITH SOME MODELS STILL TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE W COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATING IT OVER THE GULF BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR. IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE SYSTEM COULD BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR SOME RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA WHO HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FROM A DROUGHT AS LONG AS IT DOESN'T INTENSIFY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR YESTERDAY ACCORDING TO SOUNDING DATA. SATELLITE INDICATES BROAD TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ALONG WITH A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS PLUS PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W. INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW SHOULD KEEP THE WAVE RELATIVELY CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVER WATER AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PROBABLY ASSISTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N32W 8N45W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 32W-42W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 2N7W 8N20W 7N25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BESIDES TD 1... THE OTHER WEATHER STORY IS A NARROW LOW/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG ABOUT 28N BRINGING MORE RECORD HEAT TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE QUITE LOW FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD UNDER THAT STRONG RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF TD 1 BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST MORE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF COAST AS THE LOW PASSES FLORIDA KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK... THOUGH THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT ABOUT THE POSSIBLE RECURVATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EITHER WAY THE NW GULF ISN'T LIKELY TO GET MUCH RAIN ANYTIME SOON. FARTHER S... MID/ UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... MARKING THE LINE BETWEEN MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N82W RIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS HAITI THEN ALONG 20N IN THE ATLC BEYOND 60W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING LIES IN THE FAR SE WINDWARD ISLANDS OTHERWISE ELY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE AREA. UPPER CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A TAIL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM W CUBA TO YUCATAN WITH SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY GOING DOWN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A LARGE WAVE... CURRENTLY AROUND 43W... APPROACHES THE E CARIBBEAN FOR TUE. THE GFS FORECASTS THE ENTIRE LESSER ANTILLES TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TUE INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W PART OF THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW TSTMS W OF ANDROS ISLAND. SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60WE TO 27N63W HELPING TO FIRE A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DIG SOUTHWARD AND FORM THE NEXT FORM OF THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. CURRENTLY A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS SITTING FROM 31N41W 15N51W THEN INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR THE GRENADINES WITH A NORTHWARD-MOVING MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 26N46W ALONG THE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER... WHICH HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION. IN THE E ATLC.. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER NEAR 20N25W... DISPLACED NORTHWARD MORE TYPICAL OF A JULY-LIKE POSITION. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO 16N35W 9N40W INTO A SMALL HIGH NEAR 7N48W W TO 8N60W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS DECK DOTS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN CONTROL.. STILL A LITTLE WEAKER THAN AVERAGE. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT FEW WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH A MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT THAN THE RECENT ONES CONFINED TO S AMERICA. $$ BLAKE