000 AXNT20 KNHC 110556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 290 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST MOVING NNW 8 KT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WITHOUT RECON AND THERE ARE STILL PROBABLY MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE CIRCULATION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH DESPITE THE SLOPPY APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT WINDS ARE RECORDED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A BAND OF SHOWERS.. THOUGH DIMINISHING WITH TIME... MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GETTING LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED NEAR 18N83W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION. A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH MORE OF A CURVE TO THE NE LATER AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR OKLAHOMA TONIGHT CAUSES A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO EXACTLY HOW RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO IN THE WIND FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W. INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW SHOULD CAUSE INCREASING TSTMS IN THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVER WATER. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PROBABLY ASSISTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76.5W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 86W IS OUT OF THE AREA. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N27W 7N40W 5N50W 7N58W. ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 34W-50W AND S OF 4N W OF 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 45W-51W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BESIDES TD 1... THE OTHER WEATHER STORY IS A NARROW LOW/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG ABOUT 28N BRINGING MORE RECORD HEAT TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE QUITE LOW FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD UNDER THAT STRONG RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF TD 1 BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST MORE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF COAST AS THE LOW PASSES FLORIDA KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK... THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT ABOUT THE POSSIBLE RECURVATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FARTHER S... MID/ UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... MARKING THE LINE BETWEEN MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N83W RIDGING EASTWARD THRU THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG 21N IN THE ATLC BEYOND 60W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING LIES IN THE FAR SE WINDWARD ISLANDS OTHERWISE ELY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE AREA. UPPER CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A TAIL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM W CUBA TO YUCATAN WITH SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY GOING DOWN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A LARGE WAVE.. CURRENTLY AROUND 40W... APPROACHES THE E CARIBBEAN FOR TUE. THE GFS FORECASTS THE ENTIRE LESSER ANTILLES TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W PART OF THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW TSTMS W OF ANDROS ISLAND. SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60WE TO 27N63W HELPING TO FIRE A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS SITTING FROM 31N41W 15N51W THEN INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR THE GRENADINES WITH A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 25N45W ALONG THE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER... WHICH HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION. IN THE E ATLC.. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT UP IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER NEAR 20N25W.. MUCH FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO 16N35W 9N40W INTO A SMALL HIGH NEAR 7N48W W TO 8N60W.. FARTHER S THAN AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS DECK DOTS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN CONTROL.. STILL A LITTLE WEAKER THAN AVERAGE. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT FEW WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH A MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT THAN THE RECENT ONES CONFINED TO S AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE MIGHT BE ADDED AROUND 22W IN THE NEXT ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE PICTURES AND MODEL FIELDS. $$ BLAKE