000 AXNT20 KNHC 102354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA... PARTICULARLY FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO MATANZAS INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 21.8N 85.7W AT 10/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION SLOWED DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO IN THE WIND FIELD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF SURINAME... VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTH COLOMBIA IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 8N35W 5N45W 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 50 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF AND A GOOD PORTION OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE GULF WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A LOW CENTER OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF AT 500 MB. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE BRINGING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS THE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT IS STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN WESTERN CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CONTROLLING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 71W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ARE SEEN EAST OF 75W WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS FIRED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. TYPICAL STREAMERS OR CLOUD BANDS ALSO FORMED UNDER THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN A LIGHT ASH PLUME EXTENDING ABOUT 127 NM TO THE WEST OF SOUFRIERE HILLS AT THE MONTSERRAT ISLAND IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY BRINGING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH NOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N. A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG 46W FROM 22N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND SEAT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ALONG 25W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH...A SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE THAT SITS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N45W. THIS SYSTEM DOMINATES MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PRODUCING 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLANTIC WHILE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. $$ GR