000 AXNT20 KNHC 101820 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 21.7N 85.6W AT 10/1800 UTC...OR ABOUT 40 NM/75 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES 10 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AFOS/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE...FROM EARLIER AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W... HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS WHOLE AREA OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...IN PARTS OF VENEZUELA...BRAZIL AND GUYANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WAVE IS FAIRLY LOW-LATITUDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER WATER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN CENTRAL COLOMBIA HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE ITCZ IS PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALSO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN BETWEEN THE 73W TROPICAL WAVE AND THIS WAVE. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 6N26W 7N33W 7N38W 6N48W 7N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY SPARSE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE TEXAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 30N80W 26N85W 22N88W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 30N80W 22N88W LINE. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...JUST BARELY ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CUBA COAST SINCE 10/1245 UTC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS GRABBING ALL THE HEADLINES AS IT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NOW...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING FOR MEXICO AND BELIZE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE WEST OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMING OFF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS COMING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST... AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH NOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N. THE TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNS FROM 27N66W BEYOND 32N64W RIGHT BY BERMUDA. A CLEARLY DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG 43W/44W FROM 22N TO 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH NORTH OF 17N. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DEEPER THAT THE 25N45W LOW BECOMES THE GREATER IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS ROUGHLY ALONG 27W...FROM A 19N27W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. $$ MT