000 AXNT20 KNHC 100006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N85.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA AROUND 3 MB. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE CONDUCTIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL CUBA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. A SLIGHT INVERTED V-PATTERN IS EVIDENT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER VENEZUELA JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE EPAC AND CUTS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PANAMA. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N25W 5N40W 6N54W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND EAST OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W AND BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO N ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING ALSO THE GULF W OF 90W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W. MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE DRY WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY COME TO AN END FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWD DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1005 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE EAST OF 73W. AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD W AND STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS E CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE W ATLC WEST OF 70W INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEWARD TO 30N70W AND BEYOND. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERT THE CENTRAL-EAST ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N48W DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM 29N45W TO 24N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 130 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHES OF MAINLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN. $$ GR