000 AXNT20 KNHC 091037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N18W 5N37W 6N53W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 10N14W-7N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-20W... WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-45W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO N ACROSS MEXICO TO TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF W OF 90W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING N FROM ACROSS CUBA ARE S OF 25N E OF 81W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS SITUATION WILL FINALLY BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS S THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL THEN DRIFT INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 16N87W ENE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 11N67W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO A STRENGTHENING 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N86W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS FROM ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N56W. BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N43W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 11N67W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 70W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 18N17W WITH THE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 29N E OF 38W. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE. $$ WALLACE