000 AXNT20 KNHC 090000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 100-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND AMAPA IN BRAZIL. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM BEHIND THE AXIS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA PRODUCING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 6N30W 4N40W 5N50W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AREA FOUND. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 20N100W. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A 1007 MB LOW LOCATED INLAND OVER BELIZE. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 28N93W. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF MOST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W... INTERESTING FEATURE THIS EVENING IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COVERING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND A GOOD PORTION OF CUBA WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BELIZE. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE... NICARAGUA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. OF NOTE... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS RUNS FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N63W WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN EAST OF 70W...GENERATING BY THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF U.S GIVING THE ATLC WEST OF 70W SWLY UPPER LEVELS WINDS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N43W TO 12N53W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA TO THE LOW OVER BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 69W-73W. OTHERWISE... MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N-30N WEST OF 60W. $$ GR