000 AXNT20 KNHC 080503 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 6N31W 1N38W 2N48W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM FROM 8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 6N20W-3N33W...WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE 2N40W-3N48W...AND S OF 9N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 51W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE FAR W GULF W OF 96W. THIS IS GIVING THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N E OF 95W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 21N E OF 96W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 27N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N89W EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 17N TO OVER HONDURAS FROM 84W-88W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA W OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 72W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW TO 26N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 26N FROM 74W-80W INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM E OF THE FROM N OF 26N. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N43W CONTINUING ALONG 20N50W UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 16N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG 30N41W TO 25N43W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA NEAR 14N14W W ALONG 11N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. $$ WALLACE