000 AXNT20 KNHC 072304 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 180 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. A SLIGHT HINT OF LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 60W/61W MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE SIGNATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE AXIS AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS S AMERICA. BASED ON A FEW SHIPS/BUOY OBS THE WAVE AXIS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST NEAR 74W WHERE THERE IS SOME SLIGHT WAVE SIGNATURE. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N26W 4N38W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 27W. A TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 20W ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA NEARING THE COASTLINE FROM 8N-14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE N GULF WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 93W. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK SFC TROUGH. A 1015 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W GULF NEAR 27N92W. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IS THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 27N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BACK WESTWARD IN THE AREA LATE FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE S PORTION AS SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS. CARIBBEAN... LITTLE WEATHER CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK. A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 22N82W 19N86W 16N89W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WWARD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT MUCH OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-82W THIS INCLUDES JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR CUBA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN THE SAME AREA AS LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRES S OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE S AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NE OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL MOVE WWARD ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND. TRADES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 15-20 KT E OF 70W...LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE W OF THERE DUE TO THE SFC TROUGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THIS REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE W ATLC. THE UPPER AXIS LIES ALONG 32N80W 25N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N65W. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS SWWARD FROM THE HIGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NEWARD TO 32N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS 360 NM TO THE SE OF A LINE ALONG 23N79W 27N75W 32N68W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUT IT DRYING UP AS IT TRAVELS SWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N66W 25N73W. MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MIGRATING SWWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N43W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH DIGGING TO 15N54W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 32W S OF 24N. A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N21W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 25N E OF 30W. AT THE SFC...RIDGING IS THE THEME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N43W MIGHT BE BUILDING TO THE SFC CONTAMINATING THE RIDGE. THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS SWIRLING ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THIS REGION. $$ CANGIALOSI