000 AXNT20 KNHC 071812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN GUYANA IN THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW... FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N10W 6N20W 4N30W 4N44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A WEAKENING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 107W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND 120W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 85W...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 82W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST- WARD THROUGH BERMUDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 82W...WITH THE HISPANIOLA-TO-BERMUDA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 80W AND 93W...AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 20N67W 14N73W 11N73W IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 74W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W 27N68W BEYOND 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RUNS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 33N45W YESTERDAY NOW IS NEAR 28N44W...HAVING MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MEETS ALONG 50W...PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM 32N TO 16N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 30N13W 25N34W 13N48W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N AND NORTHEAST OF THE 28N44W LOW CENTER. A 1009 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 39N18W... WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N23W...ABOUT 350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 66W. $$ MT