000 AXNT20 KNHC 071036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 12N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC REGION. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N27W 5N36W 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM OF 6.5N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 17W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-27W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER CLEAR MORNING FOR THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 20N E OF 94W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N89W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N90W EXTENDS ENE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N FROM 74W-79W...INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 23N FROM 71W-77W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N69W-29N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM 22N75W TO BEYOND 32N66W. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W SW ALONG 20N44W UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N63W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 16N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 8N/9N. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N BETWEEN 21W-53W WITH CLEARING E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ WALLACE