000 AXNT20 KNHC 070527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SOME CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 6N39W-9N44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 11N MOVING 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH WEAK WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ANY WAVE SIGNATURE OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N W OF 81W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N23W 4N37W 4N53W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF 9N W OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-39W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO/YUCATAN NW ACROSS MEXICO TO SW TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF W OF 93W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 20N E OF 93W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 18N90W EXTENDS E ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 18N FROM 73W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 22N FROM 72W-79W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 22N76W TO BEYOND 32N65W. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W NE TO BEYOND 32N60W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W SW ALONG 20N46W UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N65W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 8N/9N. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE