000 AXNT20 KNHC 062316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS SURGED AHEAD AND IS ADJUSTED TO ALONG 43W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 4N. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 56W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. PART OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA. THERE IS SOME WAVE SIGNATURE EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL DERIVED WINDS AND IN A FEW SHIPS OBS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE OSCILLATED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE PRECIP NOW EXTENDS FROM 4N TO 8N W OF 55W ACROSS S AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD TO 11N W OF 52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NEARLY ENTIRELY INLAND OVER S AMERICA. THIS WAVE AND THE ONE BEHIND IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE CONTINENT FROM 4N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A SFC TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N21W 4N34W 3N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 29W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA...MOVING OFFSHORE E OF 14W FROM 3N-11N. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA IN THE EXTREME SW CORNER. AMPLIFIED NARROW UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SW U.S. A WEAK 1014 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. LIGHT SFC WINDS AND FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS THE RULE IN THE AREA. ANOTHER FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TOMORROW. TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY PUSH WWARD IN THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE S GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A SLOWLY WEAKENING SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SWWARD THRU HONDURAS. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 17N85W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NE OF PUERTO RICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N S AMERICA FUELED AND DRIVEN BY THE MOIST UPPER ELY FLOW ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ENHANCED BY SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS MORE CONVECTIVE FARTHER W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE EPAC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS FROM JAMAICA TO SE CUBA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING E OF 72W. TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE TYPICAL 15-20 KT RANGE E OF 70W...WITH LIGHTER WINDS W OF THERE DUE TO THE LOW PRES TROUGH. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE W CARIBBEAN THRU THU AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT WWARD IN THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP MID-UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N78W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N73W ALONG 27N75W 25N79W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FRONT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A TITLED MID-UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. UPPER RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH EXTENDS SWWARD TO VENEZUELA AND NEWARD TO 32N56W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN 360 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 23N80W 27N73W 32N70W. SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS BUT BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS SWARD. FARTHER EAST...A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH CUTS THRU 32N29W 23N37W 15N46W. THE N BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N21W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS NEAR 34N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 10N32W 16N23W 20N16W. THIS UPPER HIGH POSITION IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W DOMINATES THE SFC PRES PATTERN AND IS SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI