000 AXNT20 KNHC 061811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS WAVE IS SEEN REALLY WELL ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR 4N/5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE 06/1800 UTC MAP ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GONE THROUGH PERIODS OF STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...AND JUST NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...WHICH HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH TO THIS PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...NEAR THE WAVE AND IN THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N12W 6N20W 4N26W 3N37W 4N43W 6N55W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W REACHING COASTAL GUYANA AND VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. A BALL OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA...AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATING WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS...JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 106W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF INTERIOR MEXICO AND EVEN A BIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 95W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH FLORIDA. ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN SWEPT SOUTHWARD FROM THE MAINLAND U.S.A. COVERING PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...SPREADING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N85W...TO WESTERN HONDURAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA TO THE WATERS IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA... TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MORE SIMILAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF 23N68W BEYOND 32N57W. AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY CLEARER SKIES IS FOUND FROM 24N TO 31N WEST OF 75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N74W TO 28N76W TO 27N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W AND PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 26N68W BEYOND 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS FLOW IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W AS A RESULT OF THE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA 32N65W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 74W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 70W JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH 10N50W 12N40W 17N30W TOWARD 23N20W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 33W. $$ MT