000 AXNT20 KNHC 061037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE SIGNATURE OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N FROM 80W-83W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N17W 4N24W 5N46W 6N57W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-44W AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 44W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 21N E OF 94W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE FAR SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N87W EXTENDS E OVER THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 14N70W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 16N E OF 65W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 17N83W TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 14N85W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND AN AREA OF OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF JAMAICA WITHIN 75 NM 78W FROM 14N-18N AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA N OF 13N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 74W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM 73W-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W NE TO BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W TO BEYOND 32N64W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DIPPING INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N43W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N FROM 20W-65W. AN UPPER HIGH IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N28W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 20N E OF 41W THUS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. $$ WALLACE