000 AXNT20 KNHC 060521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS NOT OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT AND PLACEMENT WILL BE BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE HIDING ANY TRUE WAVE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE SIGNATURE OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 5N46W 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 20W ACROSS THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 22N E OF 94W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO 29N85W. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE FAR SW GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W EXTENDS OVER THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 12N70W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 16N E OF 66W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO A WEAK 1008 MB NEAR 18N83W TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND AN AREA OF OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE LOW WITHIN 120/150 NM RADIUS OF 17N78W INCLUDING ALL OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 71W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N63W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DIPPING INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 17N45W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N FROM 20W-65W. AN UPPER HIGH IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N30W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF AN AREA WITH THE TOTAL ABSENCE OF CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE