000 AXNT20 KNHC 051816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS ALONG 39W/40W AT 05/0600 UTC...BUT IT HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED BASED ON THE LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP TROPICAL PRECIPITATION IS FOUND WITH THIS WAVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED OVER THE AREA OF THE WAVE...WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN RELATED TO THIS WAVE HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 5N20W 3N28W 3N34W 3N39W 4N48W 4N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING. SHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE GULF WATERS HAS CONTRIBUTED SOME INSTABILITY TO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS WEAK IN THE GULF. ONLY PART OF A 1012 MB ISOBAR CUTS INTO THE AREA FROM LOUISIANA SOUTHWARD TO 23N92W...AND THEN IT CURVES TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NORTH OF 19N. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AT THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N79W 14N83W...FROM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION NEAR CUBA AND THIS LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N...AT THE WESTERN END OF A RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...FROM A 1007 MB LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF GEORGIA...TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CURVING INTO ALABAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE AZORES. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER THROUGH 32N26W 29N29W TO 25N39W TO 16N55W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER ACCOMPANIES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO SURFACE FRONT IS SOUTH OF 30N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 33N45W. $$ MT