000 AXNT20 KNHC 051033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE HIDING ANY TRUE WAVE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 57W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE SIGNATURE OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 74W-78W. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N35W 5N49W 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N17W TO THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 8N13W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N FROM 45W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S INTO THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR 25N97W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE N GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST S OF MEXICO IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC/S MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N88W TO 14N70W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N E OF 67W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY TOWARD CUBA AND NICARAGUA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM OVER NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. A SECOND LOW/FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS N GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N FROM 70W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 63W FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM THE N CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N67W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N E OF 40W. ASSOCIATED LOW/TROUGH ARE N OF THE REGION. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS WEAK INDISTINCT FEATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 12N E OF 31W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 18N FROM 20W-65W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 6N-20N E OF 34W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION IS THAT AREA. $$ WALLACE