000 AXNT20 KNHC 042348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36/37W S OF 12N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AREA RELATED TO THE WAVE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL INCREASE IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 56/57W S OF 13N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. A SURGE IN TRADEWINDS IS BEHIND IT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AFFECTING SURINAME...GUYANA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HAVING MUCH INFLUENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N25W 5N35W 4N45W 8N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30-50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF ALONG 29N82W 28N85W 28N90W. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF COAST E OF TEXAS N OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE SW GULF WITH NEARLY WLY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN FROM TD 2-E ARE STILL AFFECTING CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WIND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE AREA. WEAK 1013 HIGH PRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. MODELS SUGGEST THAT DRY NLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OVER THE NRN GULF COAST...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W-75W. WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. IT IS DRIFTING WNW WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING TO THE E OF THE LOW. NEARBY UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FIRED UP OVER HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND OVER MOST OF PANAMA. FARTHER E...UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR MARGARITA ISLAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR BERMUDA. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED WHILE IN THE E CARIBBEAN...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY ON MONDAY. TYPICAL TRADE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY E OF 75W THROUGH FRI. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AZORES IS CAUSING BROAD TROUGHING IN THE E ATLC N OF 25N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N23W 27N28W. A NARROW LINE OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AZORES HIGH IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO NEAR 32N46W BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LOW. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NE CARIBBEAN. UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES WEST AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING MAINLY W TO 17N35W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS FUELING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W. $$ GR