000 AXNT20 KNHC 041103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30/31W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N13W 7N21W 6N29W 6N32W 5N46W 5N48W 5N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N57W 6N58W 5N59W IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM GUYANA AND VENEZUELA WESTWARD...AND IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE AREA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 106W AND 122W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE REACHES 26N AND IS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 107W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF 20N100W...PROBABLY HAVING SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 17N102W AT 04/0900 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND FINALLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 27N100W 26N90W 27N83W 32N77W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N77W...TO FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS AND NORTHWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE INTERIOR MEXICO RIDGE EASILY REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVERS SOME OF THE AREA FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 35N60W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS GO FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND SOME ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ALL THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF IT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N70W AND 33N71W. A WEAK RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN THERE ALONG 55W NORTH OF 20N. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N30W. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES FROM 24N30W TO 20N45W. LINES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. $$ MT