000 AXNT20 KNHC 032343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44/45W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 45W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66/67W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER VENEZUELA...WHERE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN ACROSS NW VENEZUELA...INCLUDING ALSO LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N26W 4N35W 3N52W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL AND SURINAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS SURROUNDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF WEST OF 90W WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES OVER EASTERN U.S. DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N81W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE GULF TO 25N94W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER N FLORIDA...BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND LAKE CITY. OTHER SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF WITHIN 60-80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRY AIR MASS INVADING THE N GULF COAST. NLY WINDS BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN FROM TROPICAL DEPRESION TWO-E IN THE EPAC ARE SPREDING OUT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO... INCLUDING MEXICO CITY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF ALSO DIGS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 75W. INTERESTING SURFACE FEATURE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST GFS RUN MOVES THE LOW WWD INTO NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS IT ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN MAINLY EAST OF 75W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A TROUGH HEADING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 29N61W 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-80 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A VERY BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LARGE 1002 MB LOW IN THE E ATLC AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 25N33W. THIS FRONT IS THEN BROKEN AND RESUMES AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N47 TO 32N87W AND BEYOND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N25W 21N34W. NARROW BANDS OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 33N49W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR