000 AXNT20 KNHC 031732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CURVATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE FARTHER EAST...THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. A PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 4N35W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF 7W N OF 2N. THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS IS SURROUNDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS...MOST ORGANIZED W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MEXICO STRETCHING NWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE EPAC. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER S CAROLINA AND ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW GULF ALONG 31N83W 28N89W 27N94W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM 28N85W ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING SEWARD. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER LIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE LOW OVER N MEXICO/S TEXAS THAT GENERATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED. SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE N PORTION OF THE REGION...SINKING SEWARD. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE ENTIRE GULF...NLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND E TO SELY ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PRESS SEWARD...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF DIGS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY W FROM YESTERDAY NOW CENTERED NEAR 12N56W. THE MAIN SFC FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW PORTION NEAR 12N81W. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL WAS DETACHED FROM ANY CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FAR N OF THE LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND SPREADING TOWARDS CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 74W-81W. GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IS GENERATING A PATCH OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-66W. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...LIGHTER W OF 78W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY PULLING EWARD IN THE W ATLC NEAR 33N63W WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH HEADING TOWARDS THE N BAHAMAS ISLANDS. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 30N62W 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LARGE 1003 MB LOW IN THE E ATLC AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 25N36W. THIS FRONT IS THEN BROKEN AND RESUMES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N45W 32N87W 35N66W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MIGHT BE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 28N51W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N25W 22N35W. ONLY A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A 1023 MB HIGH LIES TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N49W. SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM 22N29W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 11N18W PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI