000 AXNT20 KNHC 031104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 10N63W FROM SIX HOURS AGO... AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 10N13W 6N23W 6N28W 5N41W 5N45W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N113W IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE REACHES 25N AND IS BETWEEN 89W AND 110W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W...IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 03/0600 UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 26N. THE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO NEAR 27N85W HAS BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS LOW HAS BECOME EVEN WEAKER AND MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W SOUTH OF 20N. MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWS BETWEEN 50W AND 63W SOUTH OF 22N. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N79W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 17N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N 75.5W...AND 14.5N 78.5W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING UP AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND OTHER PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING IN OTHER PARTS OF THIS AREA. THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR 12N79W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N65W. THE TROUGH WITH THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N67W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N70W 28N64W 34N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N62W TO 32N58W. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N30W TO 24N40W AND 25N56W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 25N56W BEYOND 32N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 50 NM TO 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT EAST OF 32W...AND WITHIN 100 NM TO 200 NM ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 20N30W TO 27N22W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. LINES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. $$ MT