000 AXNT20 KNHC 030611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE ARE BURIED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRACTICALLY ALL THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ONE CELL OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE ODDS ARE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE PROBABLY WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN INTERIOR COSTA RICA AND THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 10N13W 7N23W 7N26W 5N33W 5N40W 5N44W 5N48W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 5N30W 4N42W 3N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 26N112W IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...OVER INTERIOR MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE REACHES 26N AND IS BETWEEN 90W AND 107W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EAST TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W... IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 03/0000 UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 26N. A WEAK AND LESS WELL-PRONOUNCED MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THIS LOW CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W SOUTH OF 20N. MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWS BETWEEN 50W AND 64W SOUTH OF 22N. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N78W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO WESTERN JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING UP AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING AT THIS MOMENT. THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR 12N78W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N65W. THE TROUGH WITH THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N68W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 58W AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH RUNS FROM 21N63W TO 27N62W BEYOND 33N59W. A BIG DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N34W TO 25N43W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 25N43W TO 29N52W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 75 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 16N36W TO 24N25W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. LINES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 31N24W 24N30W 21N39W 21N47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. $$ MT