000 AXNT20 KNHC 022356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE WAVE IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAVE BEEN REPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W REMAINS MAINLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER SE NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N22W 5N30W 5N42W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-40W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND OVER TEXAS...NE MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW OVER THIS AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS S AND SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE GULF ALONG 28N87W 25N89W. THIS FEATURE IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TRIGGERED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. SFC WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE NE GULF SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM A CLOSED HIGH CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N54W. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO A 1009 LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 13N-17W BETWEEN 74W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IN PART DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT...OTHER COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TRIGGERED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS BROKEN HIGH CLOUD AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN MAINLY EAST OF 75W. OF NOTE...MOST OF JUNE STORMS ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOCATED NEAR 33N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDING ALONG 55W FROM A CLOSED HIGH IN THE TROPIC NEAR 14N54W. A VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N28W 27N35W 25N42W. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS 150-200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N27W 22N40W. NARROW BANDS OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N66W TO 25N74W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK HIGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO OVER W AFRICA AND THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR