000 AXNT20 KNHC 021026 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING BETTERED DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 33W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED WAVE MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W COVERING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 56W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N32W 4N45W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-33W AND S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROWING SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE FAR NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N97W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA/E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N90W N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST OVER ALABAMA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-96W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC IS GIVING THE S GULF MOSTLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF E OF 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N85W TO 25N87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER WESTERLY FLOW NOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM E TO W ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ITCZ AXIS AND A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N FROM 73W-84W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE AREA. OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND FAR E GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 65W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N64W SW TO 26N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 66W-77W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 57W FROM THE TROPICS TO 32N. VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W SW TO 27N36W CONTINUING W AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 26N42W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITHIN 350/400 NM OF LINE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW THROUGH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N21W TO S OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 21N34W THEN NW TO BEYOND 31N54W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 9N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W RESTRICTING ITCZ CONVECTION TO S OF 10N. $$ WALLACE