000 AXNT20 KNHC 020503 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AREA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED WAVE MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 9N. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 83W/84W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N24W 7N32W 5N42W 7N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 21W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 9N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROWING SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE FAR NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N98W AND A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA/E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N90W N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST OVER MISSISSIPPI GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 89W-95W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC IS GIVING THE S GULF MOSTLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC HAS BROADEN OVER THE [AST 24 HOURS REMAINING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 26N86W. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LIMITED NUMBER OF SHOWERS REMAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER WESTERLY FLOW NOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM E TO W ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S CARIBBEAN AND WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ITCZ AXIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N FROM 70W-84W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR E CUBA AND HAITI ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. OTHER THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND FAR E GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 65W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N65W SW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 66W78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 56W FROM THE TROPICS TO JUST BEYOND 32N. VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 30N36W SSW TO 24N40W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION WITHIN 400/500 NM OF LINE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW THROUGH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N23W TO S OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 20N38W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N53W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 9N36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W RESTRICTING ITCZ CONVECTION TO S OF 10N. $$ WALLACE