000 AXNT20 KNHC 020012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE BUT IT HAS KEPT A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC ITCZ AND IS WELL-REPRESENTED BY COMPUTER MODELS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 52W-56W. WAVE SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W/82W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COULD HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. A 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W AS VERIFIED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 4N40W 8N60W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 6W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM AN UPPER LOWER LOW . RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 91W-94W. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W. FURTHER E... CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 85W WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF 85W. FLORIDA IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N AND E OF 85W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM TEXAS TO N FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. FURTHER E... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-85W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W...AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 65W. EXPECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 25N68W 22N792W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 70W-79W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N58W TO 28N70W. A 1016 MB LOW IS ON THIS TROUGH NEAR 29N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N35W 24N41W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-85W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. $$ FORMOSA