000 AXNT20 KNHC 011714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 32W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE BUT IT HAS KEPT A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE WAVE AS A SURGE IN MOISTURE WITH A SMALLER IMPACT ON WIND FIELDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC ITCZ AND IS WELL-REPRESENTED BY COMPUTER MODELS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 6.5N-9N BETWEEN 48W-55W. WAVE SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COULD HAVE HELPED KICK OFF THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OBSERVED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW COULD BE SPAWNED BY THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A STRONG ROTATION OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 4N40W 7N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 36W-50W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BIG WEATHER STORY OF THE DAY IS THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS S TEXAS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF A MID/UPPER LOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA HAS CAUSED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A FOOT IN PARTS OF S TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY MORE RAIN COULD BE COMING AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY AS IT IS CAUGHT BENEATH WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN USA. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS...OF COURSE... THE BEGINNING OF HURRICANE SEASON. THE SYSTEM NOW INLAND OVER TEXAS DID HAVE A FEW HINTS OF TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT HAS BECOME A SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT INSTEAD. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W IS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PLUS A FEW TSTMS. FARTHER E... SKIES CLEAR OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH TSTMS INCREASING OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ATLC IS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE NE GULF PROVIDING INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SE FLORIDA. A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SAT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL TSTMS FOR THE NW GULF COAST ON SAT THEN EASTWARD ACROSS LA/MS/AL INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR SUN. THESE TYPES OF LATE-SEASON FRONTS CAN ALSO HAVE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG/AHEAD OF THEM. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGHING FROM E CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTROLS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 70W WITH UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH A WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 11N. ROTATION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVELS NW OF COLOMBIA. PRETTY TYPICAL CONDITIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ANY TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 31N70W W OF BERMUDA DOMINATES THE CONDITIONS IN THE NW ATLC. RELATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N FROM 56W-72W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MID/UPPER LOW FROM 21N-26N W OF 63W THRU THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER RIDGING ALONG 55W IS FARTHER E REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM 30W-50W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-50W LATER TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A WEAK TROUGH FROM 24N40W TO 31N33W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 10N20W RIDGING WSW TO 8N40W THEN WNW TO NEAR BARBADOS. UPPER TROUGH LIES NW OF THE CAPE VERDES FROM 19N29W TO 12N37W ALMOST BREAKING THE RIDGE IN TWO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N-20N ALMOST EVERYWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER RIDGING IS CONSIDERABLY ENHANCED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 24N29W WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE E ATLC AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS JUST N OF THE AREA. $$ BLAKE