000 AXNT20 KNHC 010438 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SLIGHT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/W PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N26W 4N40W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE SW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA EXTENDING OVER E GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN E OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. UPPER DRY AIR IN PLACE IS KEEPING THE E GULF CLEAR AND RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 70W-85W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO 16N70W ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PANAMA AND THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. DRY UPPER AIR IS SEVERELY LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 59W FROM THE TROPICS TO NEAR 32N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N61W ALONG 25N67W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 53W-64W. VERY BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 16N E OF 45W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 55W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N36W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N41W TO 26N44W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N21W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 10N40W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. $$ WALLACE