000
AXNT20 KNHC 010007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE 
WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME 
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 45W-52W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 78W S OF 
12N.  WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE 
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N 
BETWEEN 74W-79W.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N45W 4N51W.  THE ITCZ 
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-32W...AND FROM 2N-6N 
BETWEEN 33W-39W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1S-2N BETWEEN 35W-45W.    
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
10 KT WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS ALONG 28N96W 23N97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 93W-95W.  
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED 
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W.  A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W.  AN AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W 
GULF W OF 87W.  FLORIDA IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N AND E OF 84W.   EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE 
WLY FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF 
90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1008 
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N 
BETWEEN 71W-78W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  A TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  EXPECT MOISTURE AND 
CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N79W 
24N79W.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N71W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 
59W-63W.  SW TO ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N70W.  A 1022 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-84W.   WLY FLOW IS N OF 
20N E OF 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 
11N13W.
 
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FORMOSA