000 AXNT20 KNHC 311731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 77W S OF 12N. WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EPAC LATER TODAY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N22W 5N35W 4N51W. THE ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW FORMING NEAR 27N86W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN 88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF E OF 88W KEEPING THIS AREA FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE SECTOR. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 72W-87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING FROM A TROPICAL ATLC UPPER HIGH STRETCHES EWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGES. ONE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER PLUME...MUCH WEAKER...EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EXISTS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT IN THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT WEAKER IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THOSE MAGNITUDES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES STAYS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RATHER BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING TWO SFC TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 23N80W. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK IT IS WELL DEFINED WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL SCALE TSTMS. A STRONGER SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 32N59W 27N67W 21N71W. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SFC LOWS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. GFS STILL DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLACKED OFF. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N40W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 8N/9N TO NEAR 50W SUPPLYING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI