000
AXNT20 KNHC 310450
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N 
BETWEEN 38W-45W. 

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 
75W/76W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED 
UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE 
WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND 
OVER COLOMBIA. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N28W 5N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N TO THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-38W AND FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
40W-53W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF CURRENTLY INLAND 
OVER TEXAS. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 20N95W N TO INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE 
OHIO VALLEY GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ 
TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E 
PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING 
OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 93W-96W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS RETROGRADING ACROSS FLORIDA NOW 
EXTENDING OVER E GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN E OF 87W BRINGING WITH 
DRY AIR KEEPING THE E GULF CLEAR RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. 
HOWEVER...LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR S 
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN AND ARE BEGINNING TO 
DISSIPATE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND E 
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 
73W-85W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W TO 13N73W 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING THE ABC 
ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N69W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING 
THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N77W S ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 
23N79W. DRY UPPER AIR IS SEVERELY LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N58W N TO 
BEYOND 32N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N62W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014 
MB LOW NEAR 28N62W AND A EQUALLY WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N65W TO 
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM 
20N-31N BETWEEN 55W-70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC 
N OF 24N FROM 20W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW WELL N OF THE 
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE 
E ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER 
HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N17W WITH AN E/W 
RIDGE ALONG 10N TO NEAR 50W. 
 
$$
WALLACE